Paul Goble: Don't criticize Azerbaijan or Turkish-Armenian border won't open

First, keep in mind that Azerbaijan is heavily criticized for its human rights record these days. And it is Azerbaijan's own fault.
 
Wanted to start with "Et tu, Paul?" but it would be grammatically wrong in Latin. Or with "Paul Goble is just a piece of grand shit," but my respect to a friend in common forced this phrase out of a headline. Anyway, I am furious with him, you already guessed.

Recently, Paul Goble (not that Caldecott-winning American athor, but a Eurasia expert) has published an "analysis" in biweekly newsletter of Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy.

In the article titled 'No ordinary year' for Azerbaijan, Goble elaborates a point that 2009 was a year of challenges for Azerbaijan and among them them, three were most outstanding. First one is the continuing fallout from the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia; the second one is the increasing independence of Turkey as it seeks to become a major regional power; and

The third challenge to Azerbaijan as a foreign policy actor is the unintended and largely unexpected result of its own efforts to assume a higher profile in international affairs at a time when, thanks to the international financial crisis, most countries are cutting back on their missions and other activities abroad.

So, what is this challenge, Mr Goble?

[Azerbaijan's rise as a new regional power has] had another consequence that should have been anticipated but that is in any case much less welcome: Azerbaijan is now subject to much greater scrutiny and criticism than it was in the past.

Oops, so he continues:

Government actions toward journalists and others have attracted a great deal of criticism from foreign governments and monitoring organizations. Some of this criticism is inappropriate, some is informed by “double standards” of one kind or another, but some of it is quite valid and reflects the kind of examination that a rising power has to expect the international community will subject it to. That does not make it easy to take, and Azerbaijanis have generally lashed out at anyone who criticizes what they do, failing in almost every case to see that this criticism is itself a mark of Azerbaijan’s rise in the world even if it is also an indication of some of the chances Azerbaijan is likely to have to make if it is to rise higher still at least among the Euro-Atlantic powers.

However, keep your jaws closed for now, for the jewel is hidden in next paragraph:

Indeed, one of the key issues of the coming months is whether the criticism Baku has received in this area will be the cause of a rebalancing of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy away from the West. That would compromise both the country’s national interests and its proclaimed balanced foreign policy, but the level of anger about such criticism is so great that there is a danger of a new and different tilt, a possibility that those leveling criticism of Azerbaijan cannot fail to take into consideration.

Ah, arrived. But, one last excerpt from Goble:

All of these factors are going to continue to play a role in 2010, a year which may see a partial settlement of Karabakh because of Russian efforts, a partial opening of relations between Armenia and Turkey, and a greater willingness of Azerbaijan to forge ties with Iran and China.

So, we see what is the opinion of Mr Goble - don't criticize Azerbaijan, no matter how many Emins and Adnans are beaten and jailed, how many grams of heroin are found in shoes of Eynulla Fatullayev, how many villages like Benaniyar is ransacked by government militia and its residents detained en mass, shut up you, Amnesty International and State Department, otherwise Azerbaijan will get angry, turn away from you and befriend Russia. I can swear as a Russia expert, I am an inside guy of theirs, so I know their mood.

You know, I wouldn't pay a shit for that newsletter article - even my employer, who tracks Azerbaijan's foreign policy record barely knows of its existence.

But I am concerned with other fact - Paul Goble is a Russia and CIS expert with heavy insight and experience. A type of guy whose opinion is counted without listening to his arguments. No matter he could be in some dictator's payroll or in someone's favor - still he is an inside guy with many connections. He writes numerous policy papers to many institutions and they are more welcome than blog posts like this.

And I wonder - to what degree does Mr Goble advocate the above opinion of his to whom it may concern?